Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122021 210812 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    106.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.8  30.1  26.7  28.0  28.3  21.5  23.3  24.9  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  16.0  24.0  21.0   9.0  12.0  14.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 102.0  99.6  84.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0 146.0 131.0 105.0  42.0  74.0  -7.0  42.0  F VF  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  81.0  80.0  82.0  81.0  78.0  74.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -12.0 -15.0 -19.0 -17.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  F  F VF VF VF  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.7%        4.2%        7.4%
 25kt / 24h       18.9%       23.0%       21.0%
 30kt / 24h       14.6%       15.7%       15.1%
 35kt / 24h       14.6%       15.7%       15.1%
 40kt / 24h       14.6%       15.7%       15.1%
 45kt / 36h       10.3%       10.4%       10.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%        2.8%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        7.1%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        3.5%        1.9%