Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122021 210812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  27.3  20.8  16.9  18.8  19.2  22.3  18.9  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  13.0  12.0   9.0   8.0   4.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0  97.0  87.9  81.5  59.3  47.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0  82.0  49.0  28.0  19.0  22.0  -1.0  13.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  79.0  77.0  71.0  69.0  61.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -19.0 -15.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0  F VF VF  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.7%        5.7%        7.7%
 25kt / 24h       17.5%       27.4%       22.4%
 30kt / 24h       14.5%       22.2%       18.3%
 35kt / 24h       14.5%       22.2%       18.3%
 40kt / 24h       14.5%       22.2%       18.3%
 45kt / 36h       10.9%       12.8%       11.8%
 55kt / 36h        3.9%        4.4%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        7.4%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%