Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122021 210814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    113.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  19.3  17.3  19.0  19.1  14.9  13.0  11.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   9.0   7.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.9  43.6  41.5  28.0  10.0   3.0   4.4   7.2  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  11.0  23.0  17.0   5.0   2.0 -29.0 -17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  66.0  62.0  62.0  56.0  56.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   6.0   0.0   4.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.1%        4.4%       10.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%        4.2%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.5%        2.2%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%        2.2%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%