Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122021 210824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.20    157.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        63.0  60.1  60.7  59.4  55.9  54.2  53.4  51.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   8.0   7.0   9.0  21.0  26.0  22.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8 108.5 110.5 112.4 114.4 116.5 118.6 120.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -50.0 -44.0 -30.0   1.0  29.0  52.0  26.0  54.0 VU VU VU  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  21.0  23.0  28.0  32.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -5.0  -8.0 -15.0 -15.0 -17.0 -17.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons