Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122021 210824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    158.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        60.2  59.8  58.0  55.3  54.0  54.4  53.3  56.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  11.0  18.0  27.0  24.0  23.0  31.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.4 119.4 119.4 121.5 121.5 125.7 127.9 130.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -42.0 -35.0  -2.0  -2.0  11.0   5.0  39.0  40.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   20.0  20.0  21.0  21.0  24.0  26.0  32.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -3.0  -9.0 -13.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0  F  F  N  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons