Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142021 210825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60     99.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  25.5  29.6  29.8  25.4  19.3  22.0  25.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  10.0  14.0  19.0  15.0  15.0  12.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 129.6 129.6 129.6 132.0 134.3 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   142.0 170.0 159.0 139.0 100.0 104.0  97.0 141.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   89.0  89.0  87.0  85.0  83.0  80.0  75.0  72.0 VF VF VF  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.7%       13.9%        9.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        4.6%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        4.6%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.6%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%       17.9%       10.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        5.1%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        7.6%       11.1%        9.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        8.1%        4.6%
 65kt / 72h        9.9%       20.7%       15.3%