Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142021 210826 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80     99.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  28.3  36.0  30.9  32.9  24.2  13.8  23.4  N  N  U  U  U  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  14.0  19.0  18.0  14.0  13.0  18.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 132.0 132.0 132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   192.0 213.0 176.0 160.0  81.0 155.0  91.0  59.0 VF VF VF VF  N VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   90.0  87.0  85.0  83.0  80.0  78.0  75.0  70.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -7.0  -1.0  -5.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.2%       12.9%        9.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        3.9%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        3.9%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.4%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       13.9%        8.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        3.4%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.4%        8.6%        7.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        6.1%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h       12.4%       20.2%       16.3%