Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142021 210827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    102.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  19.6  15.0  15.7  30.6  23.3  11.9  16.0  N  N  F  F  U  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  18.0  17.0  15.0  14.0  23.0  24.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   148.0  84.0 112.0 131.0 119.0 103.0  52.0   1.0 VF  N  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  75.0  77.0  73.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -7.0  -8.0 -11.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        3.6%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h       18.8%       37.6%       28.2%
 30kt / 24h        9.6%       22.6%       16.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%       22.6%       13.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.9%       22.6%       13.3%
 45kt / 36h       14.1%       33.7%       23.9%
 55kt / 36h        5.0%       13.4%        9.2%
 55kt / 48h       13.8%       19.4%       16.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%       12.8%        8.2%
 65kt / 72h       12.6%       27.3%       19.9%