Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142021 210827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    103.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  17.1  15.6  20.2  33.3  14.8  12.9  14.0  N  F  F  N  U  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  16.0  14.0  13.0  16.0  29.0  23.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   116.0 105.0 120.0 112.0  85.0  91.0  -4.0  19.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  79.0  77.0  74.0  76.0  73.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0  -8.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.4%       10.2%       10.3%
 25kt / 24h       40.1%       57.1%       48.6%
 30kt / 24h       19.5%       42.0%       30.8%
 35kt / 24h       12.9%       42.0%       27.5%
 40kt / 24h       12.2%       41.6%       26.9%
 45kt / 36h       21.3%       44.5%       32.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       22.2%       11.1%
 55kt / 48h       20.4%       29.3%       24.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%       18.6%       11.7%
 65kt / 72h       11.4%       33.0%       22.2%