Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142021 210827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    104.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  14.1  18.9  28.6  28.1  11.4  11.8  12.5  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  13.0  12.0  13.0  26.0  32.0  26.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0 152.0 112.0  99.0 109.0  58.0   7.0 -22.0  F VF  F  F  F  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  73.0  67.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -4.0  -5.0 -10.0  -4.0   1.0   0.0   2.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.4%        5.7%        5.6%
 25kt / 24h       20.4%       34.5%       27.5%
 30kt / 24h        9.9%       19.2%       14.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.9%       19.2%       12.0%
 40kt / 24h        4.5%       19.2%       11.9%
 45kt / 36h       12.8%       22.4%       17.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.3%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h       17.7%       20.7%       19.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        9.8%        7.2%
 65kt / 72h       17.2%       25.6%       21.4%