Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142021 210827 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    104.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  20.3  28.0  32.7  16.4  13.8  11.7  15.4  F  N  N  U  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  12.0  12.0  14.0  26.0  31.0  26.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   163.0  95.0  85.0 109.0  81.0  -3.0  15.0 -25.0 VF  F  F  F  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  76.0  73.0  68.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -9.0  -9.0  -6.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.5%       14.9%       15.7%
 25kt / 24h       38.3%       48.1%       43.2%
 30kt / 24h       20.5%       35.4%       28.0%
 35kt / 24h       15.3%       35.4%       25.3%
 40kt / 24h       14.1%       35.2%       24.7%
 45kt / 36h       25.5%       36.1%       30.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.7%        8.3%
 55kt / 48h       18.1%       28.4%       23.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%       13.5%        8.6%
 65kt / 72h        6.8%       22.7%       14.7%