Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142021 210828 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    104.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  30.6  34.7  32.3  14.6  13.5  14.8  17.0  N  U  U  U  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  14.0  19.0  32.0  30.0  27.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0  95.0 112.0 104.0  44.0   2.0  15.0  11.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  77.0  78.0  75.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -14.0  -9.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F VF  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.6%        7.1%        7.3%
 25kt / 24h       21.7%       30.2%       26.0%
 30kt / 24h       10.6%       18.2%       14.4%
 35kt / 24h        6.4%       18.2%       12.3%
 40kt / 24h        4.4%       18.0%       11.2%
 45kt / 36h       13.6%       22.0%       17.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.1%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h        9.9%       19.4%       14.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        7.0%        4.3%
 65kt / 72h        5.3%       14.8%       10.1%