Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142021 210828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    105.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  33.2  34.2  22.0  14.1  13.1  18.4  16.1  N  U  U  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  14.0  19.0  30.0  32.0  28.0  29.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  88.0 115.0 106.0   1.0  16.0  -5.0  19.0  F  F  F  F  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  79.0  76.0  75.0  70.0  67.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -9.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.8%       13.4%       18.1%
 25kt / 24h       41.8%       46.7%       44.3%
 30kt / 24h       25.0%       38.6%       31.8%
 35kt / 24h       23.2%       38.6%       30.9%
 40kt / 24h       18.3%       37.1%       27.7%
 45kt / 36h       28.0%       32.1%       30.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       15.1%        7.6%
 55kt / 48h       14.8%       25.4%       20.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        9.0%        5.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%       13.0%        7.8%