Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142021 210828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    105.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.7  32.9  22.1  15.8  16.3  11.0  16.4  16.0  U  U  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  20.0  30.0  34.0  29.0  29.0  32.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  63.0 115.0  44.0   0.0   1.0 -10.0   6.0  N  N  F  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       44.9%       19.2%       32.1%
 25kt / 24h       58.2%       64.2%       61.2%
 30kt / 24h       51.0%       63.0%       57.0%
 35kt / 24h       51.0%       63.0%       57.0%
 40kt / 24h       37.1%       60.0%       48.6%
 45kt / 36h       36.6%       47.2%       41.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       28.9%       14.4%
 55kt / 48h       17.4%       34.7%       26.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%       14.4%        7.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%       15.4%        8.3%