Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142021 210828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    105.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  20.3  11.3  13.5  13.4  15.4  12.4  16.4  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  33.0  37.0  33.0  30.0  32.0  33.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  74.0  49.0  42.0  18.0 -18.0  15.0   9.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  69.0  68.0  64.0  64.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       40.3%       21.0%       30.7%
 25kt / 24h       61.6%       70.4%       66.0%
 30kt / 24h       59.6%       70.4%       65.0%
 35kt / 24h       59.6%       70.4%       65.0%
 40kt / 24h       31.8%       67.7%       49.8%
 45kt / 36h       40.1%       45.3%       42.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       27.8%       13.9%
 55kt / 48h       19.5%       38.1%       28.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%       12.0%        7.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.4%       14.6%        9.0%