Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142021 210829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    105.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  16.1  15.5  14.3   9.2  15.8  13.9  20.5  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  33.0  32.0  31.0  31.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  57.0  51.0  77.0  -2.0  -8.0  -5.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  65.0  64.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%        5.1%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h       18.9%       33.3%       26.1%
 30kt / 24h       11.6%       25.8%       18.7%
 35kt / 24h        9.6%       25.8%       17.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%       24.8%       13.7%
 45kt / 36h       15.2%       17.7%       16.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.9%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h       10.8%       19.3%       15.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        3.4%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        5.0%        7.2%        6.1%