Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142021 210829 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    105.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  14.5  12.7   9.2  13.5  12.0  16.6  16.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  31.0  33.0  35.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  75.0  90.0  57.0 -27.0 -28.0 -17.0  28.0  N  N  F  N VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  64.0  63.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        4.7%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h       17.3%       32.7%       25.0%
 30kt / 24h       10.5%       25.1%       17.8%
 35kt / 24h        5.6%       25.1%       15.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.7%       24.9%       14.3%
 45kt / 36h       14.6%       13.7%       14.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.0%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h       14.1%       19.6%       16.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        2.9%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        8.6%        6.7%        7.6%