Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142021 210829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80    106.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  12.4   9.7   8.8  10.2  16.1  16.7  14.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  26.0  26.0  28.0  33.0  34.0  37.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  50.0  12.0 -20.0 -24.0   9.0  -9.0  35.0  N  N  U VU VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  63.0  62.0  57.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.2%       16.2%       14.7%
 25kt / 24h       34.0%       58.3%       46.2%
 30kt / 24h       25.9%       56.5%       41.2%
 35kt / 24h       25.9%       56.5%       41.2%
 40kt / 24h       10.2%       55.1%       32.6%
 45kt / 36h       29.8%       37.8%       33.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       22.0%       11.0%
 55kt / 48h       22.5%       35.0%       28.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        9.6%        6.4%
 65kt / 72h        8.2%       14.3%       11.3%