Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142021 210829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.10    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6   8.1  10.4  13.6  11.5  15.7  13.4  21.0  F VF  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  29.0  31.0  32.0  36.0  43.0  40.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0 -14.0 -30.0 -49.0  -5.0   0.0  10.0   5.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  60.0  58.0  55.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        3.6%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%       21.6%       13.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%       14.9%        9.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%       14.4%        8.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%       14.4%        7.5%
 45kt / 36h        6.9%       12.4%        9.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.6%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        9.9%       15.5%       12.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        2.8%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        9.2%        8.0%        8.6%