Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142021 210830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         7.5  12.1  15.6  14.0  13.1  15.2  15.7  20.7 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  31.0  30.0  30.0  34.0  40.0  19.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0 -38.0 -24.0 -19.0  -2.0 -25.0   4.0  14.0  U VU VU  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  57.0  54.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        7.7%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        4.3%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.4%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        5.7%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.2%        8.5%        6.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h       11.6%        6.7%        9.1%