Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142021 210830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00    108.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  13.4  13.1  11.8  16.4  16.4  16.4  16.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  26.0  25.0  27.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0 -33.0   8.0 -12.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        4.0%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h       13.3%        5.9%        9.6%