Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152021 210908 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.3  11.1  12.8  15.4  21.1  21.0  23.5  22.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  18.0  18.0  17.0  10.0  21.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6 114.4  89.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  37.0   1.0  46.0  23.0  69.0  -1.0  -7.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  54.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   5.0   5.0  -3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.8%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%       22.9%       13.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%       10.8%        6.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%       10.5%        5.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%       10.5%        5.6%
 45kt / 36h        5.9%       25.0%       15.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.7%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h        9.5%       14.7%       12.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.3%        7.2%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h        8.7%        9.6%        9.1%