Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152021 210908 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    107.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.4  14.1  14.8  16.8  21.7  22.4  21.3  22.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  19.0  19.0  17.0  13.0  21.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6 112.4  82.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  27.0  31.0  28.0   8.0  33.0   8.0 -42.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  56.0  51.0  48.0  44.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   5.0  -6.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.8%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       22.9%       13.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%       10.8%        6.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%       10.4%        5.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%       10.4%        5.5%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%       24.1%       14.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.3%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h        7.8%       13.6%       10.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        7.0%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h        5.9%        8.7%        7.3%