Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152021 210908 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  16.1  17.6  18.4  22.9  23.5  23.9  24.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0  12.0   9.0  18.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 113.6  87.7  70.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  47.0  42.0  19.0  28.0  -2.0   1.0 -22.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  58.0  59.0  52.0  49.0  47.0  44.0  U  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   3.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        5.6%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h       10.0%       34.5%       22.3%
 30kt / 24h        5.7%       19.8%       12.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%       19.8%       11.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%       19.8%       10.9%
 45kt / 36h        7.8%       35.8%       21.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       17.4%        8.7%
 55kt / 48h        6.7%       14.5%       10.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        8.9%        5.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        6.2%        4.3%