Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152021 210908 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  16.6  19.4  19.7  22.5  20.3  20.9  24.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  13.0   8.0   9.0  19.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 117.3  94.8  73.6  64.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  57.0  19.0  12.0  11.0   9.0   4.0 -26.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  57.0  53.0  48.0  46.0  43.0  40.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   3.0   0.0  -5.0   3.0   5.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.2%        9.0%        7.6%
 25kt / 24h       17.2%       43.0%       30.1%
 30kt / 24h       10.9%       28.2%       19.6%
 35kt / 24h        6.4%       28.2%       17.3%
 40kt / 24h        5.5%       28.2%       16.9%
 45kt / 36h       10.3%       41.9%       26.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       22.5%       11.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.3%       13.5%        9.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        9.8%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        5.4%        3.4%