Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152021 210909 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  20.8  21.0  21.0  21.3  21.3  22.1  22.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  11.0  10.0  15.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 115.1  89.4  72.2  66.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  21.0  16.0  13.0   8.0  11.0  -5.0 -17.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  54.0  51.0  46.0  44.0  40.0  38.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   5.0   0.0  -4.0   4.0   6.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        4.7%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h        8.6%       28.2%       18.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%       16.0%       10.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%       16.0%        9.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       16.0%        8.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%       24.6%       14.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.6%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        7.5%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        4.4%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        3.3%        2.3%