Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152021 210909 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  22.3  20.5  21.4  20.9  21.5  22.2  20.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  13.0  15.0  18.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  95.7  72.7  58.6  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  28.0  12.0  17.0  -2.0  16.0 -35.0 -27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  51.0  49.0  46.0  42.0  38.0  38.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   1.0  -4.0   3.0   4.0  11.0   9.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       26.6%       22.8%       24.7%
 25kt / 24h       37.5%       59.6%       48.6%
 30kt / 24h       31.4%       53.4%       42.4%
 35kt / 24h       31.4%       53.4%       42.4%
 40kt / 24h       17.1%       52.2%       34.6%
 45kt / 36h       20.1%       46.8%       33.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       29.5%       14.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%       14.1%       10.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        8.9%        5.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        3.5%        1.8%