Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152021 210909 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  21.3  21.5  20.8  19.1  19.4  20.8  19.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  18.0  16.0   8.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  82.4  59.6  50.8  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0   8.0  32.0  -3.0  32.0   0.0 -36.0 -14.0  U  U  N  U  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  52.0  49.0  48.0  45.0  41.0  37.0  36.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -1.0  -6.0  -5.0   2.0   7.0   7.0  10.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       36.9%       29.2%       33.1%
 25kt / 24h       42.8%       64.8%       53.8%
 30kt / 24h       42.1%       63.6%       52.9%
 35kt / 24h       42.1%       63.6%       52.9%
 40kt / 24h       21.0%       60.8%       40.9%
 45kt / 36h       21.2%       49.0%       35.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       32.8%       16.4%
 55kt / 48h        5.7%       13.2%        9.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        8.7%        5.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%