Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152021 210910 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  22.3  22.0  22.0  22.0  20.7  16.9  14.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  77.9  61.6  46.1  31.7  29.2  30.4  27.9  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -2.0 -11.0 -29.0 -55.0 -28.0 -42.0 -75.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  45.0  43.0  40.0  36.0  34.0  31.0  28.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0   1.0   6.0   6.0  12.0  13.0   8.0   6.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.4%        7.7%        9.0%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%       11.5%        8.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.8%        9.1%        6.9%
 35kt / 24h        4.8%        9.1%        6.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        8.4%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%