Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152021 210910 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90    110.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  21.4  21.0  20.8  20.3  19.1  14.2  15.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.6  77.4  64.4  53.0  43.0  41.7  41.7  40.4  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  -1.0 -43.0 -38.0 -41.0 -40.0 -59.0 -90.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  42.0  41.0  39.0  35.0  33.0  29.0  27.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   7.0  10.0  10.0  12.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons