Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152021 210911 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70    113.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  19.9  21.6  19.9  16.4  15.1  12.7  13.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.5  71.7  69.2  67.9  67.9  69.2  69.2  71.7  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -28.0 -38.0 -40.0 -34.0 -23.0 -51.0-104.0 -82.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  37.0  34.0  32.0  31.0  28.0  28.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   8.0   9.0  11.0  12.0   7.0   5.0   2.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons