Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152021 210911 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  20.1  18.7  17.4  16.0  12.8  12.4  14.5  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.8  75.4  75.4  75.4  75.4  75.4  75.4  78.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -42.0 -35.0 -30.0 -30.0 -32.0 -69.0 -68.0 -57.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  32.0  31.0  31.0  28.0  26.0  24.0  23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   8.0  10.0  12.0   9.0   5.0   4.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons