Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162021 211010 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    102.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  21.4  19.0  21.8  15.4  21.9  23.1  27.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  23.0  25.0  26.0  23.0  20.0  20.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  90.0 119.0  73.0  57.0  85.0  91.0  54.0  N  F  F  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  64.0  63.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -4.0  -7.0 -10.0  -7.0  -5.0   2.0   8.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.1%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        9.6%       25.5%       17.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%       11.3%        7.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%       10.9%        6.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%       10.9%        5.8%
 45kt / 36h        7.7%       37.1%       22.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       17.1%        8.6%
 55kt / 48h       14.5%       23.7%       19.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.1%       18.8%       11.9%
 65kt / 72h       22.7%       34.1%       28.4%