Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162021 211010 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    104.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     65.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  21.1  20.5  17.2  18.0  21.6  22.1  34.8  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  18.0  17.0  19.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0 106.0  57.0  50.0  87.0  44.0  79.0  56.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  71.0  67.0  63.0  62.0  58.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -10.0 -11.0  -8.0  -7.0  -2.0   1.0   5.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        4.6%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h       16.2%       42.5%       29.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.7%       25.4%       15.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%       25.4%       14.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%       23.9%       12.6%
 45kt / 36h       12.3%       57.8%       35.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       36.7%       18.4%
 55kt / 48h       21.1%       36.0%       28.6%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%       31.0%       18.3%
 65kt / 72h       20.9%       40.3%       30.6%