Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162021 211011 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    106.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  16.8  13.5  15.2  22.5  25.7  28.3  45.7  N  F  F  F  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  22.0  20.0  19.0  18.0  31.0  38.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  58.0  80.0  87.0  80.0  74.0  54.0  80.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  48.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -7.0  -7.0  -3.0   1.0   4.0 -14.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.7%        7.4%        8.0%
 25kt / 24h       25.0%       45.6%       35.3%
 30kt / 24h       16.2%       30.8%       23.5%
 35kt / 24h       10.5%       30.8%       20.7%
 40kt / 24h       10.5%       30.8%       20.7%
 45kt / 36h       22.8%       42.5%       32.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       21.6%       10.8%
 55kt / 48h       16.2%       23.5%       19.8%
 70kt / 48h        6.6%       13.9%       10.2%
 65kt / 72h       16.2%       15.7%       16.0%