Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162021 211011 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    107.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  14.7  13.6  19.3  22.9  30.2  42.2  50.6  N  F  F  N  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  21.0  20.0  19.0  22.0  47.0  28.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  52.0  54.0  66.0  67.0  61.0  72.0  53.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  53.0  48.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -9.0   0.0   9.0 -10.0  17.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%        6.0%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h       15.4%       37.5%       26.5%
 30kt / 24h        9.5%       23.7%       16.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.2%       23.7%       14.4%
 40kt / 24h        5.2%       23.7%       14.4%
 45kt / 36h       13.1%       32.3%       22.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.4%        7.2%
 55kt / 48h       12.0%       18.3%       15.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        8.4%        6.0%
 65kt / 72h        6.4%        6.6%        6.5%