Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162021 211011 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    107.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  16.3  20.3  23.5  27.4  36.5  48.1  50.6  F  F  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  19.0  19.0  20.0  43.0  40.0  12.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  48.0  64.0  60.0  54.0  58.0  56.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  47.0  46.0  33.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -9.0  -6.0   2.0  -2.0   1.0  33.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.7%       25.0%       23.4%
 25kt / 24h       43.6%       65.1%       54.3%
 30kt / 24h       27.4%       61.2%       44.3%
 35kt / 24h       23.7%       61.2%       42.4%
 40kt / 24h       23.7%       58.3%       41.0%
 45kt / 36h       26.9%       51.7%       39.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       32.8%       16.4%
 55kt / 48h       14.1%       25.2%       19.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%       11.7%        7.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        5.0%        3.9%