Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172021 211022 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    100.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  11.8  11.5  13.3  14.5  14.7  17.1  21.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  21.0  20.0  20.0  19.0  20.0  22.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0 136.0 150.0 155.0 169.0 122.0 103.0  76.0  F VF VF VF VF  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  75.0  73.0  67.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        8.4%        5.6%
 25kt / 24h       38.4%       65.1%       51.8%
 30kt / 24h       14.1%       47.5%       30.8%
 35kt / 24h        6.3%       47.5%       26.9%
 40kt / 24h        4.8%       46.5%       25.6%
 45kt / 36h       33.9%       77.2%       55.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       60.0%       30.0%
 55kt / 48h       50.3%       66.7%       58.5%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       61.2%       43.0%
 65kt / 72h       61.8%       72.9%       67.3%