Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172021 211022 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    100.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.2  12.5  14.2  17.8  19.8  15.4  24.4  29.2  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  20.0  19.0  19.0  20.0  22.0  23.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   171.0 158.0 143.0 177.0 146.0 104.0  62.0  48.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  71.0  68.0  60.0  51.0  49.0  42.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.3%       11.3%        9.3%
 25kt / 24h       51.1%       67.9%       59.5%
 30kt / 24h       21.7%       50.9%       36.3%
 35kt / 24h       12.0%       50.9%       31.4%
 40kt / 24h        9.9%       50.9%       30.4%
 45kt / 36h       37.3%       73.6%       55.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       54.3%       27.1%
 55kt / 48h       46.1%       59.1%       52.6%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       53.0%       38.9%
 65kt / 72h       52.4%       54.3%       53.4%