Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172021 211023 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    101.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.6  12.4  12.4  14.9  14.0  19.2  22.8  34.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  20.0  19.0  20.0  21.0  23.0  22.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   127.0  88.0 117.0 115.0  96.0  81.0  63.0  39.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  58.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.1%       12.9%       11.5%
 25kt / 24h       46.8%       65.6%       56.2%
 30kt / 24h       24.2%       51.3%       37.7%
 35kt / 24h       15.6%       51.3%       33.4%
 40kt / 24h       15.6%       51.3%       33.4%
 45kt / 36h       39.3%       69.4%       54.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       50.4%       25.2%
 55kt / 48h       41.1%       53.1%       47.1%
 70kt / 48h       24.6%       41.8%       33.2%
 65kt / 72h       40.8%       41.8%       41.3%