Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172021 211023 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    101.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.4  10.1  11.5  14.2  15.5  20.8  25.8  36.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  19.0  20.0  20.0  22.0  23.0  17.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0 118.0  95.0 116.0 108.0 133.0  63.0  30.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  66.0  61.0  54.0  50.0  50.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       53.2%       42.2%       47.7%
 25kt / 24h       76.3%       84.8%       80.6%
 30kt / 24h       73.8%       82.2%       78.0%
 35kt / 24h       73.8%       82.2%       78.0%
 40kt / 24h       73.8%       82.2%       78.0%
 45kt / 36h       64.6%       82.0%       73.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       71.3%       35.7%
 55kt / 48h       48.6%       67.1%       57.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       54.0%       39.4%
 65kt / 72h       29.9%       34.9%       32.4%