Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172021 211023 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    101.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  14.2  14.3  14.6  15.2  24.8  33.5  41.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  19.0  19.0  20.0  20.0  19.0  11.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   107.0  80.0 119.0  92.0  93.0  72.0  44.0 -11.0  F  N  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  64.0  60.0  56.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  42.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   1.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.7%       49.4%       57.5%
 25kt / 24h       83.2%       85.8%       84.5%
 30kt / 24h       83.2%       85.8%       84.5%
 35kt / 24h       83.2%       85.8%       84.5%
 40kt / 24h       83.2%       85.2%       84.2%
 45kt / 36h       65.6%       76.9%       71.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       64.7%       32.4%
 55kt / 48h       37.9%       58.5%       48.2%
 70kt / 48h       20.6%       36.4%       28.5%
 65kt / 72h       11.8%       15.2%       13.5%