Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172021 211023 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    101.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.7  13.5  13.4  14.6  23.0  28.1  32.2  38.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  19.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  13.0  12.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  68.0  57.0  78.0  94.0  71.0  25.0  -1.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  59.0  54.0  52.0  49.0  48.0  52.0  39.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       76.9%       56.0%       66.5%
 25kt / 24h       88.3%       86.0%       87.1%
 30kt / 24h       88.3%       86.0%       87.1%
 35kt / 24h       88.3%       86.0%       87.1%
 40kt / 24h       88.3%       85.9%       87.1%
 45kt / 36h       64.7%       63.1%       63.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       46.5%       23.3%
 55kt / 48h       24.2%       40.7%       32.5%
 70kt / 48h        9.6%       15.9%       12.7%
 65kt / 72h        4.4%        6.4%        5.4%