Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172021 211024 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    101.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.9  12.5  14.4  17.9  25.9  32.1  37.3  37.3  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  17.0  10.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0  51.0  62.0  62.0  85.0  59.0  -2.0  -2.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  56.0  54.0  52.0  49.0  51.0  45.0  45.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       64.3%       53.4%       58.9%
 25kt / 24h       74.1%       86.4%       80.3%
 30kt / 24h       69.0%       86.4%       77.7%
 35kt / 24h       67.3%       86.4%       76.9%
 40kt / 24h       62.2%       85.0%       73.6%
 45kt / 36h       48.8%       53.9%       51.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       36.3%       18.2%
 55kt / 48h       18.5%       34.4%       26.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.0%        9.7%        6.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        4.0%        3.1%