Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172021 211024 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    101.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.0  13.9  17.3  21.7  26.0  33.0  40.6  40.6  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  14.0  12.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  46.0  63.0  87.0  68.0  30.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  32.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.2%       21.1%       20.1%
 25kt / 24h       38.6%       52.3%       45.4%
 30kt / 24h       29.4%       50.9%       40.2%
 35kt / 24h       29.4%       50.9%       40.2%
 40kt / 24h       29.4%       50.2%       39.8%
 45kt / 36h       23.8%       16.8%       20.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.5%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%       12.1%        8.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        1.0%        1.3%