Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172021 211024 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    101.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.2  16.3  23.0  25.9  31.8  41.2  41.2  41.2  F  F  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  18.0  17.0  15.0  10.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  61.0  67.0  65.0  46.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  50.0  42.0  42.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.3%       17.0%       16.7%
 25kt / 24h       27.3%       40.6%       34.0%
 30kt / 24h       21.8%       37.0%       29.4%
 35kt / 24h       21.8%       37.0%       29.4%
 40kt / 24h       21.8%       36.5%       29.2%
 45kt / 36h       13.7%        9.9%       11.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        5.6%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%