Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172021 211024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    101.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  23.3  26.1  27.9  32.0  41.3  41.3  41.3  F  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  18.0  16.0  13.0  11.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  61.0  53.0  52.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  38.0  38.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.9%       14.1%       15.0%
 25kt / 24h       23.1%       34.8%       28.9%
 30kt / 24h       19.6%       30.5%       25.1%
 35kt / 24h       19.6%       30.5%       25.1%
 40kt / 24h       19.6%       29.9%       24.8%
 45kt / 36h       10.3%        7.4%        8.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        4.1%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%