Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172021 211025 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    101.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  26.2  26.9  31.1  35.8  35.8  35.8  35.8  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  16.0  13.0  11.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  40.0  33.0  19.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.2%       14.7%       18.4%
 25kt / 24h       22.6%       31.6%       27.1%
 30kt / 24h       18.8%       27.7%       23.3%
 35kt / 24h       18.8%       27.7%       23.3%
 40kt / 24h       18.8%       26.5%       22.7%
 45kt / 36h       11.5%        7.3%        9.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%