Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172021 211025 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    102.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  37.0  36.9  37.2  37.2  37.2  37.2  37.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0  10.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  45.0  30.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  53.0  56.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.9%        4.4%        8.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.8%       10.1%        8.4%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%        6.6%        6.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%        6.6%        5.7%
 40kt / 24h        4.2%        6.1%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.1%        2.2%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%