Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172021 211025 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    102.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.5  42.4  41.7  47.9  47.9  47.9  47.9  47.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  14.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  42.0  -2.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  50.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   6.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%